First Forecast for the Brexit Referendum
By Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick The UK will have a referendum on whether to remain in or leave the EU on 23rd June 2016. We have developed a method for forecasting the outcome based on current vote...
View ArticleSecond forecast for the Brexit referendum
by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick A month ago we issued our first forecast for the EU membership referendum on 23rd June 2016. Based on an analysis of referendums in the UK and on the EU outside the...
View ArticleAn Update on the Historical Referendums and Polls based Forecast
by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick. We have published two previous forecasts of the result of the UK’s referendum on EU membership, which are based on current vote intention opinion polls for this...
View ArticleThe Historical Referendums and Polls based forecast, one month out
by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick. There has been a small shift towards Remain in the polls over the last two weeks. Excluding Don’t Knows, our polling average for Remain has moved from 52% on 10th...
View ArticleForecast update for the Historical Referendums and Polls based Method
by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick. The small shift towards Remain in the polls that we observed last week has been reversed. Setting aside Don’t Knows, our polling average for Remain has dropped back...
View ArticleHistorical Referendums and Polls based Forecast Update
by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick. Remain have continued their gentle slide in the polls. Last week our polling average saw Remain drop from 53% to 52%. Now they are on 51% after setting aside Don’t...
View ArticleA 50:50 forecast from the Historical Referendums and Polls based method
by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick. Our forecast has taken a dramatic turn. Last week our polling average had Remain at 51% after setting aside Don’t Knows. It has this week dropped a further two...
View ArticleForecast update for the Historical Referendums and Polls based method
by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick. We offer our condolences to the family and friends of Jo Cox MP. We hope that it is not disrespectful of us to post this updated forecast now that the official...
View ArticleFinal forecast from the Historical Referendums and Polls based method
by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick. The polls this week have been better for Remain than they were last week. Since this is our final forecast it makes sense for us to restrict our sample of polls to...
View ArticlePolls-based forecast for the 2017 British general election
by Stephen Fisher and Josh Goldenberg. Our central forecast for the result of today’s general election is as follows. GB share of the vote Seats 90% prediction intervals Conservative 44 349 318-385...
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